VEGAS BET OF THE NIGHT FRIDAY NACCAF WEEK 2
Easy money maker tonight to get you some cash for Saturday!
Boise State 41 at New Mexico 10
Boise State -17 / -1000 / O/U 44.5
WINNER!
People have been pulling hard for Boise State’s QB Hank Bachmeier to have a senior season breakout. He’s a good QB and he’s been a big part of Boise State’s program. However, in the first game of the year, QB Hank Bachmeier had a meltdown reminiscent of Boise State’s QB Jared Zabransky at Georgia in 2005. It was a crushing crushing loss at Oregon State and QB Hank Bachmeier was pulled early in the second quarter. Can Hank recover like Z did? There are challenges. Zabransky was only a junior in his second year as a starter, Bachmeier is a senior in his fourth. He doesn’t have much time. In that game, the Boise State defense was suspect at times. They weren’t terrible against the run, especially in the first half when they yielded only 35 yards. However, the lack of pressure on Oregon State’s QB Chance Nolan was discouraging (zero sacks). Boise State’s Linebacker, Tyreque Jones was turned around a couple times in his new nickel spot and the secondary allowed seven completions of 15 yards or more. Another area that needs fixing is the kicking game, Broncos kicker Jonah Dalmas missed two field goals against OSU.
The brightest spot on defense was weakside linebacker D.J. Schramm, in the first start of his career as a fifth-year senior, he logged 11 tackles. On another bright note, Boise picked up one Oregon State fumble and had two Oregon State Chance Nolan interceptions.
Boise is 11-1 against New Mexico (all time). It’s easy to look at the New Mexico Lobos’ 2021 record and think of an easy win, afterall, they went 3-9 last year, and finished last in the nation in total offense.
This year, the Lobos’ offense is led by Kansas transfer quarterback Miles Kendrick which runs the triple option. The Lobos defense is led by defensive coordinator Rocky Long, he is the former San Diego State head coach (2011-2019), Rocky operates a little-used 3-3-5 scheme. New Mexico’s first game of the season was a 41-0 thrashing of Maine, a FCS program. It’s hard to gauge any clues as to how good the Lobos could be against Boise State. The week one games Boise State and New Mexico played are no fair comparisons ie..apple to apples, more like watermelon to grapes. Sure, New Mexico’s defense delivered the Lobos’ first shutout in the Coach Danny Gonzales era. The shutout was UNM’s first since its 2015 season opener when the Lobos blanked Mississippi Valley State, 66-0. The Lobos’ defense didn’t allow a first down to the Black Bears in the first half and held Maine to 49 total yards before halftime. Maine finished with 118 yards.
UNM quarterback Miles Kendrick, had an up-and-down debut. The worst: two ugly interceptions in the first half. The highlights: he threw for 170 yards and two touchdowns on 14-of-17 passing, and he ran for 40 yards. To complicate things, there were five offensive penalties that totaled 40 yards, three second-half fumbles (all of which were recovered by the Lobos). One thing that doomed the Lobos early in last year’s matchup were two blocked punts that got turned into first-half touchdowns, helping Boise State build a 17-0 lead, from there New Mexico would never really threaten. The Broncos didn’t look good in their opener against Oregon State and New Mexico did look revitalized against Maine, BUT if you draw conclusions from a one-game sample size, do so at your own peril. This game should be more competitive on paper BUT Boise State still has the overall talent advantage and, even if they don’t play flawlessly, the Broncos should be able to hold off the Lobos for the win..
Boise State has played 21-games on the road since 2018. They are 15-6 with losses coming from (Oregon State, San Diego State, UCF, San Jose State, BYU and Oklahoma State) note, in the years that these teams beat Boise State, all the teams had 10-win seasons or more for the exception of recently played Oregon State.
New Mexico has played 22 home games since 2018, they are 6-16. When you look at the data you see on average NM scores at home 26 points, allows 33 and the totals average 60 points per game. But wait, When you eliminate games played against FCS schools you get the following.
Against similar competition (All FBS Top 60 teams removed all FCS removed)
Points Scored Allowed Combined
Boise State ROAD 35.1 22.5 57.6
New Mexico HOME 24.2 36.3 60.6
Against same teams
(Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, Utah State and Wyoming)
Points Scored Allowed Combined
Boise State ROAD 35.1 21.0 57.0
New Mexico HOME 18.7 35.5 54.2
The current Over / Under for the game is 44.5. This would have to be a very abnormal game to reach the under, VERY ABNORMAL!
TAKE: -1000 Money line and Parlay with the OVER 44.5
BET $10 WIN $11