VEGAS BET OF THE NIGHT NFL SUNDAY

Updated: Sep 14

Let's keep the Money Train Rolling! 9-1..how about 10-1!



SF 49ers 10 @ Chicago Bears 21

Sunday 1:00 PM

Since the 2018-19 NFL season the Chicago Bears were underdogs at HOME in 15-games, they won four (4) of those games.To put this in perspective, Overall from 2018-2022 the Bears played 33-home games. The Bears WERE NOT favored in 15 of those home games, which is 45% of the games. The Bears won four games (12%) in which they WERE NOT favored at home. This is GREAT. I routinely avoid using betting data (Point Spread, Money Line…etc because it is truly useless as a deciding factor if a team wins or loses or as a model for comparison or measurement of two teams. However, this is the one exception where sportsbook data is useful. Time to do a simple LAMBDA test.


FAV AT HOME DOG AT HOME TOTALS

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WIN AT HOME 13 4 17


LOSE AT HOME 5 11 16

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TOTALS 18 15 33


(33-9) / 33 = .72% Lose at Home

(33-24) / 33 = 27% Win at Home


Thus information supplied by sports books (Fav or Dog) does improve our ability to predict outcomes. Now we move to our next step, if losing is predicted, then by how much.


Since 2018 loss by by point difference


LOSS AS FAV AT HOME -4.8


LOSS AS DOG AT HOME -9.9


The Bears are +6.5 points as a dog at home. Clearly, the +6.5 does not exceed the average 9.9 points need to cover


TAKE: 49er’s -6.5 LOSS


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