VEGAS BET OF THE NIGHT FRIDAY WEEK 1

NCAAF WEEK ONE, FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

Illinois 20 @ Indiana 23

Over/ Under is 46.5 and Illinois is +125 and +3

(since 2018) Against Big Ten and (BCS) Schools

IU at HOME Allow 31.0 Score 21.3 Total points 52.4

ILL on Road Allow 30.9 Score 20.8 Total points 52.5

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Against like and equal competition (since 2018)

IU at HOME Allow 22.9 Score 22.0 Total points 44.9

ILL on Road Allow 28.0 Score 22.8 Total points 42.5

(Minn, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland, Rutgers, Virginia, Nebraska)

IU is 6-11 at home since 2018 have lost 5-in-a-row

ILL on is 6-12 on the road since 2018 last 5-road games 2-5

The best bet for this game TAKE: UNDER 46.5 WIN

The over / under is set at 46.5. When you look at the combined totals from playing "like" opponents, Indiana's home combined point totals average is 44 and Illinoiis on the road has 42. When you look at the standard deviation from their averages, at best, the least combined total Indiana could have (in a normal range) is 38.8 points and Illinois 37.9, therefore any thing below or at average for Indiana or Illinois would be in the normal scoring average range. It’s more unlikey for the teams total points to be more than 46.5 because you are now starting edge past one whole standard deviation of the normal scoring range.

Indiana is favored at home (-3). Five of the top NCAAF ratings have Illinois +3 ahead on points (Hatch, Sagarin, Kislanko, Massey, Whitlock and Wobus) It’s hard to dispute this statistical analysis. TAKE: Illinois +3 PUSH