SARATOGA FRIDAY 9/2/2022
Let's have some fun and winning $$$
BELMONT BETH’S FRIDAY
Always use my TOP 3 Picks
Race 1 $88,000 Maiden Special Weight 6F Dirt 1:05 PM ET
Horses (1,2,3,5,6,7 and 9) are unraced. The #4 and #8 have raced dirt and the #10 raced turf. The #10 Nice 'n Spicy 5-1, has trainer Mike Maker has 15 wins and four with owners Paradise Farms Corp. Maker prefers to use jockey Saez but goes with Carmouche for this race. Paradise Farms & Maker would rather race 8F or longer, they have no dirt wins below 8F. Lastly it’s the horses first race on dirt. I’m placing the #10 in the backend. The #9 You're My Girl 9-2 is trained by J P Terranova, Owned by Gafsas Stables and on the mount is Rosario. We have the Trifecta (Owner/Trainer/Jockey) they won a 7F dirt (8/27) as a trio. Rosario has 17-wins on dirt and four at 6F (2-Maiden and 2-Stakes). Richard Schosberg is the trainer of #2 Ma Mi Jo Dreams 10-1 and he has two wins one with Clear Stars Stable and one with Mitre Box Stable, both on dirt and one at 6F Dirt. Jockey cancel is on the mount, that's the bad news, he only has four wins. I will also put #6 Mim 6-1 in the backend. Trainer Rice, DJ stables and Jockey Lezcanno as a trio have one win together.
Race 2 $120,000 Allowance Optional Claiming ($62.5K) 5.5F Turf 1:39 PM ET
Horse #6,#7 and #2 are up for claim. Going to try and beat the FAV in this race #3 Mail Order 7-5. At 5.5F Turf, Christophe Clement has seven wins, Linda Rice has five, Chad Brown four wins. Owners Klaravich Stables,Michael Dubb and R.A Hill Stable have three wins. When you break it down to allowance races Mike Maker and Christophe Clement are the only trainers with two wins. Since maker is not in this race, have to take #2 Hit the Woah 5-2 and #5 Mischievous Dream 3-1 and both are Christophe Clement trained horses. Gaffalione on the #5 has three wins at 5.5F and one was an allowance. The horse has a win at 5.5F turf (Maiden) then went to stakes race, this is a big drop in class. Lastly, the jockey Rosario has six wins at 5.5F turf and four wins are with Clement. The #3 Mail Order 7-5 in the back end. The #3 Mail Order was purchased for $300K and trained by Mott. Mott does have two wins at 5.5F turf and one of those wins was with Lezcanno in a maiden race. Here’s the issue the #3 has two wins, 6F turf ($92K allowance) and a 7.5 turf (maiden). Great times, but no 5.5F wins and last race out Mail Order finished behind #2 Hit the Woah. I’m going to put #6 Ellanation 6-1 in the back
Race 3 $105,000 Maiden Special Weight 1 3/8 Miles (11F) Turf 2:15 PM ET
There have only been three 11F races in this meet. The #3 Tiz a Giant 2-1 and #2 Most Wanted Man 9-5 raced together on Aug. 10th at 9.5F and finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively, with just 00.08 separating them. The #3 Tiz a Giant has the same jockey, Johnny V., on the mount. However, #2 Most Wanted Man is changing jockeys from Irad to Franco today. The #1 Good Medicine 9-2 finished 3rd at an 11F turf at Belmont. There are no times for that race. However, the jockey (Prat) that won that race is now on Good Medicine. Prat also finished 3rd with this horse on July 24th at 8.5F with a 1:42 time, a 96 Beyer and only by - 1 ¾ lengths. We all know that Prat is great at these longer turf distances and to top it off it is a Maiden race which he has been excelling at this meet. Okay, here’s a hmmmm type of bit of information for you. We all know that I like to follow the money. Well the #5 was just claimed from Michael Dubb earlier this month and the #6 was just claimed from Klaravich Stables at the end of July. My thought here is that with these two owners, they just don’t put horses up for claim unless they really think they can’t get their money’s worth out of them. Hmmmm.
Race 4 $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming ($45K) 7F Dirt 2:49 PM ET
I’m going to try and beat the FAV #4 Khali Magic 5-2 with Girl Power Magic! This is a GREAT RACE. The dirt numbers are telling. Irad Ortiz has 22-wins on dirt and 48 wins overall with almost 50% of his wins split equally between dirt and turf. Jockey Saez has 25-wins on dirt and 11 wins on turf for a total of 36 wins. That's 70% for dirt wins. The only other Jockey with above 50% of his wins coming from dirt is Franco with 61% To put this in perspective there have been 192 (53%) dirt races and 171 (47%) turf races for a total of 364 races. ALL other jockeys have between 15% to 35% of their wins coming on dirt (except for Irad 48%). Dirt allowance races are more in favor of Saez (7) than Franco (3). The #8 Mosienko 7-2 with Jockey Saez is owned and trained by Stacy Lalman and this is her to produce Mare in the stable earning over $162K not bad for an independent! The horse is very good at 6F and 6.5F if she gets her pace, should be in the money! The #4 Khali Magic 5-2 has jockey Franco and the horse is Owned by Wachtel Stable and trained by Chris Englehart. This “Trifecta” (Owner/Trainer/Jockey) trio won a 6.5F dirt together on July 15th at Toga. This horse has won a 7F on dirt by 5-lengths and this will be the first time racing at 7F since that win back in January 13 at Aqueduct. Remember Ripley’s “Believe it or Not” show, I have one for you now. Dylan Davis has one win at 7F Dirt allowance and it was with Raymond Handal. The horse won listed at 8-1 ML. Jackie Davis has one win at 7F Dirt allowance and it was with her Dad as Trainer. The horse won listed at 15-1 ML. Now, Katie Davis is on the #6 Diva Banker 15-1 with Owner and Trainer Raymond Handal. Want to make this even stranger, both Dylan and Jackie were in the 6th post position!
Race 5 $115,000 Allowance 1 3/16 (9.5F) Miles Turf 3:21 PM ET
Easy Easy race to handicap. Just go with
# 8 Santa Giulia F Prat C Brown
# 1 Eylara J Rosario C Clement
# 5 Ballymore Star T McCarthy J K Sweezey
Race 6 $88,000 Maiden Special Weight 6F Dirt 3:55 PM ET
Wow, I might be dreaming, two super easy races? Go with it!!
5 Banterra (NY) F Prat S Asmussen Chuck Hovitz
10 Security Code (NY) T Gaffalione P M Serpe WellSpring Stables
2 Stonewall Star (NY) M Franco H De Paz Barry, K Schwartz,
Can you beat Asmussen on dirt? NO!
Race 7 $50,000 Claiming ($35K) 1 1/16 Miles (8.5F) Turf 4:29 PM ET
Let’s talk SPEED. #5 Topic Changer 4-1 with Jockey Rosario and trainer Clement AND #6 Bless Bless 6-1 with jockey Carmouche and Trainer M J Maker with Owners Three Diamonds Farm. In this 8.5F on turf Mike maker and Chad Brown are Dominate. Good news, there is no Brown in this race which leaves Maker. Maker and Three Diamonds Farm have a great connection and win. The biggest threat to the #5 and #6 winning come from the #9 Momentous 6-1 with jockey Prat and trainer Brisset and Owners WinStar Farm with Siena Farms. Prat has a win with Winstar and Siena is aligned with trainer Asumussen and Brisset. Lastly, 15 of Prats 20 wins on turf come from 8F or longer! BTW, there have been 56 8.5F turf races and only 18 winners have come from the TOP 2 ML odds - That’s 32% More important story is 40 winners came from 4-1 or higher ML odds 72%. This will not be a Chalk Race!
Race 8 $150,000 Lucky Coin Stakes 5.5F Turf 5:05 PM ET
5 Thin White Duke J R Velazquez D G Donk Philip A Gleaves
6 Voodoo Zip J Rosario C Clement West Point Thoro
7 Fauci J Alvarado P Antonacci Lindy Farms
Race 9 $250,000 Prioress Stakes 6F Dirt 5:39 PM ET
1 Wicked Halo T Gaffalione S M Asmussen Winchell Thoroughbreds
2 Hot Peppers L Saez R R Rodriguez Michael Dubb and Michael
3 Lady Scarlet J L Ortiz M J Maker Paradise Farms Corp.
4 Mischievous Diane M Franco R Handal Perrine Time
Race 10 $88,000 Maiden Special Weight 1 Mile (8F) Turf 6:13 PM ET
This race was very interesting to handicap and very jacked up, in my opinion. I’m going to totally break this race down. There have been no owners or trainers in this race to have a 8F turf win. There are three unraced horses in this race, the #1 Nyshares 6-1, the #3 Party News 30-1, and the #7 Valento’s Here 20-1. The #5 Bernardino 9-2 has been racing on and off since 2018 (nine races) and still hasn’t broken its maiden. On top of that, the horse is seven years old racing against seven-three year olds and a four year old. Now the stumper on this horse is that he has been working out at Saratoga since Aug. 5th