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BELMONT BETH’S FRIDAY
Always use my TOP 3 Picks
Race 1 $200,000 Seeking the Ante Stakes 6.5F Dirt 1:05 PM ET
There have been (10) 6.5F races all of them on dirt AND Three were stakes races. Surprisingly, none of the owners or jockeys in this race have won at 6.5F. The #1 Song Parody 7-2 trained by Clement broke its maiden at 5F dirt with a finish time of 58.9 by 5 ½ lengths and a Beyer rating of 97. Clement has 12 wins, one was dirt. Note; the one dirt win was with jockey Franco at 6F. Franco has 29 wins, eight of those were 6F and 7F. The #5 Miracle 2-1 broke its maiden racing 6F dirt at Saratoga on July 27 with a 1:13 time and won by 6 lengths. The horse received a 92 Beyer rating. The #5 Miracle is keeping the same trio combination of Prat/Brisset/WinStar Farm. Believe it or not! As of Thursday Jockey Prat has 28 Wins!
Race 2 $88,000 Maiden Special Weight 6F Dirt 1:39 PM ET
This race has two turf horses trying out dirt and one unraced horse. I will not be using the two turf horses the #2 Unkoalafied and #5 Mischief Motion. The speed in this race comes from the #1A Voleuse 9-5. The horse is trained by Clement who has 11 wins and five of his wins were with jockey Rosario, they make a good team. The #4 Funny How 3-1 is owned by Alpha Phi Delta Racing (2 dirt wins, 1 maiden) and trained by Ray Handal (2 wins, 1 dirt) on the mount is McCarthy. Trevor only has five wins at this meet and three were maiden races. There have been 20, 6F dirt maiden races and about half have been won by FIRST TIME STARTERS. I’m taking
#6 Uptown Express 12-1 just because of that stat. It also helps that the horse has been working out at Saratoga since July 7th.
Race 3 $250,000 Albany Stakes 9F Dirt 2:15 PM ET
Since last Friday jockey Prat has won seven races three maiden, three allowance and one stakes race and six of those races were on turf. The #1 Price Discipline 7-5 owned by Klaravich Stables, gets jockey Prat. The horse is trained by Chad Brown who has seven 9F wins, 5 on dirt, 2 with Prat. This sounds great but, last ride out for Price Discipline the horse had jockey Johnny V and he rides differently than Prat. Johnny likes to get out front whereas Pratt loves to close. Therein lies the issue, The other closer in this race is #5 Bossmakinbossmoves 8-1 and this horse can beat Price Discipline “in a closing type race” Assume the #4 Barese with jockey Sanata goes to the lead, the horse has great finish times at 9F (1:48) but that's for finishing 3rd and 4th he has never won at this distance. Then, let’s assume Prat and Irad hang back to close at the turn, If this happens the #5 wins. If Prat takes the lead, and stays at the front, then the #1 wins.
Race 4 $88,000 Maiden Special Weight 7 F Dirt 2:47 PM ET
In this race six horses are first time starters.The #4 Chulligan 8-5 is favored because of the purchase price tag of $825K and for that kind of money you may want a quick return. As was in the 2nd race this horse is trained by Clement who has 11 wins and five of his wins were with jockey Rosario, they make a good team. The #8 Michael Leis 6-1 is a first time starter and trainer Mike Maker has 14 wins and 11 are with Saez, two with Irad and one with Gaffalione. The horse has many workouts at 5F so the horse is ready to run. The #2 Quick to Accuse 4-1 is also a first time starter, purchased for $200K and has been working out at Saratoga since June. Lastly, #3 Boss Jim 5-1 has one race at 5.5F turf and is going to try dirt. The horse raced in a $88K Maiden and finished with a 1:04 only 4-lengths out. The jockey is Prat and he has 28 wins and 16-wins are maiden races.
Race 5 $200,000 Fleet Indian Stakes 9F Dirt 3:21 PM ET
This race will have no upset The #5 Venti Valentine 9-5 has raced in a 9F, G3 stakes and just missed winning and finished with a 1:50 prior to that the horse won a $250K Stakes race at 1-mile at 1:39 (Yes it’s slow) by 7 lengths! The #2 Fingal's Cave 4-5 is the only horse in the race that has won a 9F race. Fingal's Cave won with a 1:50 in a $115K allowance race. That’s the race
Race 6 $95,000 Allowance 5.5F F Turf 3:55 PM ET
The leading jockeys with turf wins are irad with (26) and Rosario and Prat with (16). We have good speed horses in this race and with the rail down we should see them fly. Also, four horses have Beyer ratings above 100. The Owners of #4 Aunt Virginia 8-1 are R.A. stables R.A. has two wins at 5.5F turf and one was allowance. However, this will be the first time working with trainer Gustavo Rodriguez who has four wins. Aunt Virginia won a 5.5F with a time of 1:02 and received a Beyer rating of 102. The horse has Castellano (14-turf wins, six at 5.5f) The #9 Tis a Pity 9-2 won a 5.5F 95K Allowance at 1:04. The horse is trained by Clement (10 turf wins, six at 5.5F) and has jockey Prat (16-wins on turf). The #2 Patria 8-1 just missed winning a $95K allowance by a neck with a finish time of 1:04 And the horse received a 104 Beyer rating. Lastly, the #12 Blame It On Mary 8-1 won a 6F with a 1:08 running a $80K allowance race and received a 107 beyer, the highest of all horses in this race. The jockey is Dyalan Davis and he only has 8-wins BUT all his wins come from fast horses that go off at high ML odds. NOTE: The #13 Sinfully Sweet 5-1 is (AE) and if entered, you need to place him in the mix. The horse can fly, won a $88K Maiden with 1:02 and is trained by Mark Casse who has a 5.5F turf win trifecta (jockey/trainer/owner) of Mccarthy/Casse/Tracy Farmer. I would place the #13 in 2nd position order
Race 7 $200,000 Funny Cide Stakes 6.5F Dirt 4:29 PM ET
I THINK WE CAN BEAT THE FAV (#5 Andiamo a Firenze). My first argument is, five of the six horses only have a Maiden wins and the #6 General Banker has NO WINS. Two horses have won $88K maiden’s, the rest did not. Two horses broke their maiden at 6F and won by 6 lengths or more AND the other horses have not raced past 5.5F. Going with #2 I'm Wide Awake 8-1, #4 Donegal Surges 4-1 and using the #5 Andiamo a Firenze 4-5 in the back.
Race 8 $200,000 Yaddo Handicap 8.5F Turf 5:03 PM ET
This was the easiest race to handicap. Three horses have raced $200K stakes races or above AND won. All three have Beyer ratings above 109 AND all three can hit 9F at or below 1:48.
Taking; #5 Runaway Rumour 5-1 with Prat, #6 Make Mischief 9-2 with D. Davis, #10 Classic Lady 5-1 with Rosario and tossing in a horse that has won 2-in-a-row with burning speed
#7 Marvelous Maude 3-1 with Irad
5 Runaway Rumour (NY) F Prat J R Abreu 5 - Lawrence Goichman
6 Make Mischief (NY) D Davis M E Casse 6 -Gary Barber
7 Marvelous Maude (NY) I Ortiz, Jr. C C Brown 7 - Michael Dubb
10 Classic Lady (NY) J Rosario C Clement 10 - Michael Dubb
Race 9 $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming 7F Dirt 5:39 PM ET
There are five horses with BLAZING FAST 7F times (that can drop below 1:22). So from the easiest race to handicap to the most difficult. My top 5-horse slowed down at the end because they were so far ahead of every horse. Two horses #1 Perfect Munnings 12-1 and #3 Key Point 2-1 both have 112 beyer ratings from 95K and 80K Allowance races respectively. They also have won by 6 and 7 lengths so finish times of 1:22 and 1:24 are deceptive.. The #11 Excellent Timing 8-1 has won 7F with a 1:28 from a 100K stakes race with a 106 beyer, but here’s the kicker the #11 won by 7 lengths. Again deceptive finish time. You also need the #12 Anejo 6-1 and the #2 Listentoyourheart 10-1. I don’t think they can win, but they do have speed and one slip by the other three horses, it becomes an open race.
3 Key Point (NY) M Franco C C Brown 3 - Jeff Drown,
1 Perfect Munnings (NY) L Saez T Pletcher 1 - JP Racing Stable
11 Excellent Timing (NY) I Ortiz, Jr. R Atras 11 - Michael Dubb
12 Anejo (NY) J Velazquez D F O'Neill 12 -Calumet Farm
2 Listentoyourheart (NY) J Rosario C Clement 2 - Merrylegs Farm
Race 10 $200,000 West Point Stakes 8.5F Turf 6:13 PM ET
Taking the #9 Ocala Dream 10-1 and hoping it can repeat the Belmont May 30 race. In that race Ocala it a 1:33 mile and crushed the 8.5F stakes race with a 1:39. Ocala is a closer, so I hope no issues occur. I have two solid horses with trainers to follow up. The #5 City Man 8-5 with jockey rosario and trainer Clement wich just missed winning a G3 finishing in 1:41 and receiving a 122 Beyer rating (the tops in this group) Using the #3 Somelikeithotbrown 7-2 with jockey Gaffalione and trainer Mike Maker. This horse won a $200K stakes race in 1:42 and received a 117 Beyer. Lastly, using Santan in the back with #4 Sanctuary City 12-1
9 Ocala Dream (NY) J Castellano T Morley 9 - Thomas Albrecht,
5 City Man (NY) J Rosario C Clement 5 - Reeves Racing
3 Somelikeithotbrown (NY) T Gaffalione M J Maker 3 - Skychai Racing
4 Sanctuary City (NY) Santana J W Ferraro 4 - Messina, Edward
Race 11 $50,000 Maiden Claiming 8F Turf 6:47 PM ET
All of these horses have raced before except for one, #8 Stand United 20-1. I always like to throw in an unraced horse due to the wild card factor. The #11 Addicted to You 9-2 has been racing 8.5F turf races and finishing 2nd with Prat. Addicted to You also has a 93 Beyer rating. We all know that Prat is a jockey that likes to close. I think this just might be the horse's distance. The #9 Your Mission 5-2 has Irad on the mount and Pletcher is the trainer. They are a duo that just can’t be left out. I know Your Mission didn’t have the best race earlier this month on Whitney Day, but I do believe that is because of the pole position Irad was at (#2) and he was boxed in. Today he is in the 9th pole position. In the backend, I’m putting #3 Dressedforthefifth 5-1 and #8 Stand United 20-1 (Hey, stranger things have happened!).