NFL WEEK ONE PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

The best picks and predictions will post thursday September 8, 2022.

Green Bay at Minnesota

GB -1.5 / -120 / OU 47

Last year looked like this: Minnesota lost to the Bengals in Overtime, while Green Bay lost @ New Orleans (Jacksonville) Lost 38-3. Then in week 2, the Vikings went on to lose at Arizona 33-34.

Pro NFL teams unlike NCAAF have rivalry’s that transcend coaching and players especially against division rivals. From 2000 to 2021 Minnesota vs Detroit, Chicago and Green Bay at home average a combined points of 44. The three highest point totals were 78,75 and 71 then everything drops to 61 and below. The three lowest combined point totals were 20, 21 and 22 then everything jumped to 27 and higher. Clearly those scores were well above and below the normal range. I will toss those scores out and we come up with (41.7) so not much change. But the big difference is with the standard deviation. With all scores it’s 12.7, with the removed scores it drops to 8.5. Playing teams within conference gives you this O/U range:

Mean Combined Scores 41.7 points

Lowest possible 33.2 points

Highest possible 50.2 points

Since 2009, the start of Rogers' reign, here are the O/U averages for both teams, only at Minnesota and only at Green Bay. again, clearly more room for the under.

Avg GB Score Avg Min Score Avg Totals

All games vs Green Bay (HM & RD) 26.6 20.4 47.0

All games vs Green Bay (at HM) 23.6 20.2 43.8

All games vs Green Bay (on RD) 24.0 19.0 47.0

The current Over/Under is set at 47 points, clearly there is more room to get the under than the over. TAKE: UNDER 47 points

Other Week One Great Wagers

ML BEST MONEY LINES

-250 TENNESSEE TITANS

-285 CINCINNATI BENGALS

-360 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

ML BEST OVER/UNDER

47 UNDER GB AT MINN

52 OVER RAIDERS AT LA CHARGERS

ML BEST POINT SPREADS

3.5+ New England