NCAAF WEEK ONE SATURDAY

Updated: Sep 4

WE HAVE SOME SOLID GAMES!


North Carolina @ Appalachian State

North Carolina @ Appalachian State

Appalachian State -2 / -130 / OU 56 WIN OVER 56


Appalachian State is 23-1 at home since the 2018 season AND 38-8 overall. App State has played three top FBS / BCS schools on the road in 2018 they went on the road and beat Penn State 45-38. In 2019 they went to UNC and lost 31-34 and in 2021 they went to Miami (Fla) and won 25-23. Only once did Appalachian State score less than 17 pts (Home and Road)


Appalachian State Averages Opp Avg App St Avg Totals Avg

Against FBS Teams 33.67 31.67 65.33

At Home 18.64 40.14 58.77 Overall Games Won 16.11 39.95 56.05

Overall Games Lost 30.5 19.375 49.9

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Opp Avg NC Avg Totals Avg

North Carolina on Road 30.7 31.5 62.2


North Carolina is 5-15 on the road since 2018 and North Carolina lost ALL four of their road games in 2021. Appalachian State looks very good this year and North Carolina does not. I think the safe play is the OVER 56. You could put just a little $$$ on the Appalachian State money line -130.


Last week, in their first game, North Carolina had a redshirt freshman QB who threw for 294 yards and five touchdowns against FCS Florida A&M..so you beat a FCS team ranked 202 out of 260 FBS & FCS ranked Teams. I hope North Carolina can put up 56 points like they did against Florida A&M.


Appalachian State is 23-1 at home since the 2018 season AND 38-8 overall. App State has played three top FBS / BCS schools on the road in 2018 they went on the road and beat Penn State 45-38. In 2019 they went to UNC and lost 31-34 and in 2021 they went to Miami (Fla) and won 25-23. Only once did Appalachian State score less than 17 pts (Home and Road)


Appalachian St Avgs Opp Avg App St Avg Totals Avg

Against FBS Teams 33.67 31.67 65.33

At Home Overall 18.64 40.14 58.77

Games Won 16.11 39.95 56.05

Overall Games Lost 30.5 19.375 49.9

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Opp Avg NC Avg Totals Avg

North Carolina on Road 30.7 31.5 62.2


North Carolina is 5-15 on the road since 2018 and North Carolina lost ALL four of their road games in 2021. Appalachian State looks very good this year and North Carolina does not. I think the safe play is the OVER 56. You could put just a little $$$ on the Appalachian State money line -130.


Last week, in their first game, North Carolina had a redshirt freshman QB who threw for 294 yards and five touchdowns against FCS Florida A&M..so you beat a FCS team ranked 202 out of 260 FBS & FCS ranked Teams. I hope North Carolina can put up 56 points like they did against Florida A&M.


Arizona Wildcats @ San Diego State Aztecs

San Diego State -6 / -240 / OU 47 LOSS



Arizona Wildcats

Trusted statistician and sport ranking and rating expert Jeff Sagarin has Arizona ranked 70th below Northern Illinois (71) and above Maryland (69). SDST is ranked 65th, below Missouri (66th) and above Memphis (64th).


San Diego State beat Arizona on their home field last September, 38-14. Last year Arizona finished 1-11 overall and 1-8 in the Pac-12. Here’s the Win/Loss stats.


Arizona

41-games from 2018 - 2021. Overall record is 10-31. In that time Arizona has played 18-games on the road and went 2-16 AND have lost 11 consecutive road games coming into the road game vs San Diego State.


2018-2021 data Allow Score Combined

Overall points 34 24.2 58.2

Home points 31 26.5 57.4

Road points 38 21.9 59.2


All six ranking experts I use for the exception of Massey ratings, have SDST ahead of Arizona by 10 points or more. Massey has Arizona ahead by 1-point.


San Diego State Aztecs

San Diego State was one of only 10 schools to record 12 victories in 2021, the most in the 99-year history of the club. The Aztecs finished in the season-ending top 25 for just the third time, ranking 25th following their 38-24 win against UTSA in the Frisco Bowl.


In 2021 the Aztecs had the “injuries” bug and used a bunch of QB’s This year they have QB Jayden de Laura, a transfer from Washington State. San Diego State has a ton of great transfers coming to play on the offense like Jacob Cowing, WR (UTEP) On the Defense there are 8 starters back and two new players, LB Hunter Echols (USC) and Safety DJ Warnell (UCLA)


Look, no need for a ton of stats. But here is what you need to know. SDST has played top FBS (somes BCS) teams 12-times. At home from 2017-2021 they are 5-0. They defeated:

ARIZ ST, BYU, COLO ST, STANFORD and UTAH On the road SDST is 4-3 against top FBS (somes BCS) teams. They defeated: ARIZ, ARIZ ST, COLO ST and UCLA and lost to BYU. COLO and STANFORD.

SAST against 12 FBS & BCS Teams

2018-2021 data Allow Score Combined

Overall points 19 22.5 41.5

Home points 18 25 42.5

Road points 19.5 21 41


TAKE: the money line is solid -240 for the win and use this game as an anchor in your Parlays. I would also place a little $$$ on the UNDER 47







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