NCAAF WEEK ONE FRIDAY
FRIDAY September 2, 2022
TCU 38 @ Colorado 13
TCU -13.5 / -530 / O/U 55.5 LOSS
When people ask "What Happened" Colorada was +13, I'll say, the 4th Quarter!
Data based on games 2018 to 2021 NO FCS schools
Colorado won their last 3 home games
TCU has lost their last 4 road games
Scored Allowed Totals
Colorado at Home 28.3 25.2 53.4
TCU on Road 26.2 31.4 57.6
Games Eliminated:
TCU on the road: the least amount of points scored was 6 pts vs West Virginia (11/14/20)
TCU on the road: the most points scored was 59 pts vs Kansas (11/28/20)
Colorado at home: the least amount of points scored was 0 pts vs Arizona (10/16/21)
Colorado at home: the most points scored was 42 pts vs UCLA (11/7/20)
After HIGH and LOW score elimination this gives a revised average score total:
Scored Allowed Totals
Colorado at Home 29.2 22.3 52.1
TCU on Road 25.5 32.3 57.8
Using six professional NCAAF team rating systems I find the ratings in favor of TCU except for one (1). The Kislanko ratings have the teams even (TCU 44.5, Colo 44.6). I like complete agreement with ratings, if one is different it becomes a close game EVERY TIME!
TAKE: COLORADO +13.5
Temple 0 @ 30 Duke
Duke -6 / -275 ML / OU 51 LOSS
Only one team showed up, and you can't expect DUKE to score all 52 points
A big difference between these two teams,Temple has returning starters. Temple wasn’t great last year, but does return a lot of starters on both sides of the ball. Duke is not only replacing a bunch of players at key positions, but also has a new head coach. Duke parted ways with the beloved and respected Head Coach David Cutcliffe last November with the Blue Devils having lost 13 consecutive ACC games over the past two seasons.
In 2021 Duke simply could not stop anyone when it came to playing defense. The Blue Devils ranked dead last in total defense in Division I, surrendering 517.9 yards per game and an average yards per play total of 7.12. The inability to prevent teams from moving up and down the field resulted in teams scoring 60 touchdowns against the Blue Devils in 12 games and averaging 39.8 points per game. On the flip side Temple's offense wasn't much better when it came to moving ball. The Owls averaged only 287.4 yards per game in total and 4.77 yards per play. The result was a paltry total of just 22 touchdowns in 12 games and only 16.3 points per game. Much like Duke's late season collapse in 2021, Temple's offense was completely out of sync over the last half of the season, failing to score more than 14 points in any of the last seven games of the year.
From 2018 to 2021 Temple has played 21 games on the road. They are 6-15, wait it gets worse. From 2020 to 2021 Temple has played 10 games on the road. They are 1-9 with the only win coming last year over Akron wich is ranked #233 out of #235 FBS and FCS schools. Wait, it gets worse. In those last 9 losses on the road, Temple scores on average 13 points per game and allows opponents to score 43. The Median (50% above, 50% below) difference temple loses games by is -34 points with the average being -29.5. The combined avg score of those nine losses is 56 total points with the Standard Deviation of 10 points. On the other side we have Duke a powerhouse in basketball, not so much in football. Going back to 2019, Not including FCS teams, Duke has won four games at home (Kansas, Northwestern, Miami FL, and Georgia Tech) In those 14-games Duke allows opponents to score an average of 36 points and Duke scores 24 points. The average combined point totals for games is 63 points with a standard deviation of 16 points.
Basic math explains what we have. The OU line is set at 51-points
Temple has a normal range of +/- 10 points from 51 points
Duke has a normal range of +/- 16 points from 63 points
Without the combined totals going statistically outside the mean. The possible low end, we have combined scores of 41-47 and at the high end combined scores of 61 - 79. Clearly there is more opportunity for the combined score to surpass 51 points then the probability of the under 51 occurring.
As for rankings and ratings Duke is rated 207 out of 235 FCS and FBS schools while Temple is rated 174. In fact, Hatch ratings have Temple ahead by a slim margin of .556 over .538. Sagarin lists Duke as a 73% chance of winning the game while others have Duke in the 60% range.
Go with the OVER 51 points
Virginia Tech 17 @ Old Dominion 20
Va-Tech -6 / -250 / OU 47.5 - Win or Loss depending on how ya bet
This is a great match up. For the first time in program history, Old Dominion opens up the season against a Power Five team at home. After five straight wins to close the 2021 season, Old Dominion will kick off the season at home against Virginia Tech. The last time Old Dominion played VA-Tech at home was In 2018, Old Dominion defeated No. 13 Virginia Tech 49-35. ODU is 1-2 all-time against Virginia Tech. The Monarchs lost in Blacksburg in 2017 and 2019, and won in Norfolk in 2018. Virginia Tech has a new coach, he is the former Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry. The twist in this game, Old Dominion’s head coach Ricky Rahne was hired in 2019 and he is the former Offensive coordinator for Penn State (hello) Ya think they know each other's moves just a bit. That being said, the stats are pretty similar.
SCORE ALLOW COMBINED
OLD D (HM) 31.0 28.9 59.9
V-TECH (RD) 28.8 28.7 57.5
The rankings and ratings tell a good story. The hatch ratings have the game almost even with VA-Tech at 67.6 and ODU 63.6. However, that's as close as it gets (Sagarin, Kislanlo, Massey, Whitlock and WOBUS) have VA-Tech ahead by 20 percentage points if not more. I want to believe ODU can win this game but the numbers don’t support it.
Don’t risk much $$, the Money line -250 is the play. The Over / Under is too volatile and I would need to buy down to -3 points for point spread to feel safe taking Virgina Tech so ODU +6 seems a good wager if the data holds true.
Probability Home Team (ODU) Wins 36.2%
Probability Home Team (ODU) Covers 52.7%