NCAA WEEK ZERO SATURDAY
SWO will be posting the best wagers in NCAAF everyday, so check back often
Northwestern at Nebraska in Ireland
Northwestern +13 / Nebraska -560 / 49.5 OVER
FINAL: Northwestern 31 - Nebraska 28
Since 2018, Nebraska at home against Big Ten competition is 6-17 however, when playing Northwestern, Nebraska is 2-0 with wins in 2019 (13-10) and in 2021 (56-7). Now depending on which sportsbook set the line, Nebraska won the “OVER” in all their home games except for the first game against Buffalo (6-1). When you go 6-17 since 2018 and two of those wins come from Northwestern it looks good. Overall against Northwestern at home, Nebraska is 3-3 since 2011.
Now in 2020 and 2018 Northwestern has beaten Nebraska in Evanston, IL. (21-13) and (34-31). Nebraska coach Scott Frost says his Nebraska football team is eager for the season to start Saturday against Northwestern in Ireland. Therein lies the dilemma. Technically a home game but you're playing away. Nebraska in their last 31-games are 9-21 and have lost 5-in-a-row on the road AND 1-11 (against big ten competition) in their last 12-games with the one win coming against Northwestern.
Northwestern has lost 6-games in a row on the road (against big ten competition and BCS teams) When the Wildcats win on the road (since 2018) they average 24 points per game, when they lose on the road they average 12 points per game. So the question is, which team shows up? I predict a 32-27 win by Nebraska. I do see Northwestern with +13 covering but not winning the game. The under seems very low, taking the OVER
Wyoming at Illinois
Wyoming +13 / Illinois -530 / UNDER 44.5
FINAL: Illinois 38 - Wyoming 6
In the Wyoming offseason, the Cowboys’ offense was hit hard by the transfer portal. Wyoming lost both starting quarterbacks, their leading wide receiver, and their top rusher. The Cowboys will be attempting to fill the holes they lost on offense with young inexperienced players who will need time to develop. On the defensive end, however, the Cowboys had a productive offseason, returning most of the production from last season (though they lost a few Power 5 transfers). While it’s a bit of a transition year for the Cowboys, they still pose a tough challenge to the Illini. The Cowboys lost starting quarterbacks Sean Chambers and Levi Williams to the transfer portal, and they don’t have a clear replacement. It’s a toss-up who gets the starting job for the Cowboys against Illinois, and their starter could change game to game. The lead candidate for the Cowboys is Andrew Peasley, a transfer from Wyoming’s rival Utah State. Besides Peasly, no other quarterback option has D1 experience. Evan Svoboda transferred from a junior college and had a productive spring game where he impressed coaches with his arm strength. Hank Gibbs is a freshman known for his football IQ. QB Andrew Peasley: Before transferring to Wyoming, Peasley was the backup QB at Utah State for two years. During his limited playing time at Utah State, Peasley showed explosiveness using his legs—including a 62-yard rushing touchdown against New Mexico. Defense Consistency: Another strong part of the Cowboys is their defense, which successfully stalled the opposing offense last season, allowing a respectable 23.6 PPG and 189.6 passing yards per game. Although the Cowboy defense lost a handful of Power 5 transfers to the portal, they return DE Oluwaseyi Omotosho and NT Cole Godbout. The Cowboys’ coaching staff is known for their player development, which will help fill the holes left by transfers.
Wyoming on the road from 2018 to 2021 in August and September is 4-2. Wyoming allowed on average 25 points per game and scored and averaged 27 points per game.
Illinois played 30-home games from 2017 to 2021 They played 8 lower subdivision schools (non BCS) they went 6-2 losing to Eastern Michigan in 2019 and UTSA in 2021. Illinois allowed on average 19 points per game and scored and averaged 29 points per game. Note: when Illinois WON their 6-games they covered the UNDER, when they lost the two games they covered the OVER. Against Big Ten competition Illinois played 22 games at home and went 4-18. Illinois allowed on average 33 points per game and scored and averaged 18 points per game.
I don’t think Wyoming will win the game but they get +13 and I do think they cover the spread.