Jimmy's Best NCAA Football Selections Saturday 9/24
Off to another great week, ML Upsets and Point Spread Covers
Saturday Results. Overall we had 77 wagers we won 49 and lost 28 (64% Win Rate) Results posted below in PDF
NCAAF WEEK 4 RESULTS
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N.C. State 41 vs UConn 10
N.C. State -39 / NL / 50.5 WINNER (51 points)
UConn is 1-18 on the road since 2018 with their only win coming against UMass. The Big question is, Who do you think N.C.State is? Are they a strong BCS powerhouse or just an average FBS team? Uconn statistically is in the running for the absolute worst team in all of College football. There are 254 team 9FCS & FBS) and Uconn is in the Bottom 10 in almost all categories. Against Power-5 type teams they average 10 PPG and allow 50 PPG. The Wolfpacked is ranked 12th in the nation.They beat a good Texas Tech team at home (27-14). They won by 1-point over a much improved East Carolina team on the road (21-20). Lastly, they beat FCS Charleston Southern at home 55-3. If you believe N.C State is on the level of a BCS team, then expect a 52-0 game and you cover the point spread. If you believe N.C. State is more like Indiana, Purdue or Syracuse then expect a 21-52 game and UConn + points. In either event the OVER looks good no matter which team shows up.
TEAM Off YPG Pass YPG Rush YPG Defense Rank / YPG Allowed
N.C. State 240th 126th 129th 47th / allow 295
UConn 173th 244th 86th 190th / allow 490
TEAM Score PG Allow PG Totals PG
N.C. State 45.5 4.3 41.3
-Since 2018 at home N.C. State PPG against teams ranked 160 or higher
UConn Against “Similar” Competition.
Date Away Score Home Score Result Pt Diff Totals
Aug 27, 2022 UCONN 20 UTAH ST 31 L -11 51
Oct 9, 2021 UCONN 13 UMASS 27 L -14 40
Oct 2, 2021 UCONN 28 VANDY 30 L -2 58
Nov 30, 2019 UCONN 17 TEMPLE 49 L -32 66
Oct 26, 2019 UCONN 56 UMASS 35 W 21 91
Sep 18, 2021 UCONN 21 ARMY 52 L -31 73
Nov 17, 2018 UCONN 21 E.CAROLINA 55 L -34 76
Nov 3, 2018 UCONN 19 TULSA 49 L -30 68
Oct 20, 2018 UCONN 30 USF 38 L -8 68
AVERAGES 25.0 40.7 -15.7 65.7
UConn Against “Top 100” Competition.
Date Away Score Home Score Result Pt Diff Totals
Sep 17, 2022 UCONN 0 MICHIGAN 59 L -59 59
Nov 20, 2021 UCONN 17 UCF 49 L -32 66
Nov 13, 2021 UCONN 7 CLEMSON 44 L -37 51
Aug 28, 2021 UCONN 0 FRESNO 45 L -45 45
Oct 12, 2019 UCONN 7 TULANE 49 L -42 56
Sep 28, 2019 UCONN 21 UCF 56 L -35 77
Sep 21, 2019 UCONN 3 INDIANA 38 L -35 41
Oct 6, 2018 UCONN 14 MEMPHIS 55 L -41 69
Sep 22, 2018 UCONN 21 SYRACUSE 51 L -30 72
Sep 8, 2018 UCONN 7 BOISE 62 L -55 69
AVERAGES 9.7 50.8 -41.1 60.5
Ohio 59 vs Fordham 52
-18.5 / -900 / 73.5
The year was 1939, and Fordham was a football school. Three years removed from the legendary “Seven Blocks of Granite” and three away from a victory in the Sugar Bowl, the Rams were perennial contenders on the national stage. But in the season opener that year against the Waynesburg University (WU) Yellow Jackets, the football powerhouse took yet another leap forward, this time onto the small screen. On Sept. 28, 1939, the Rams took on the Yellow Jackets in the first televised game in college football history. But to fans at Randall’s Island Stadium, the game was similar to any other Fordham rout in previous years. The differences were minimal: a single camera mounted on the sidelines, two massive Telemobile trucks outside the stadium and radio commentator Bill Stern in a nearly unprecedented role. The Fordham Rams enter this Ohio matchup 3-0 defeating University at Albany 48-45 on Sept. 17. The Rams' senior quarterback Tim DeMorat went 33-for-53 with 464 passing yards and five touchdowns. Sophomore running back Julius Loughridge led the team on the ground, netting 69 yards on 16 attempts. In the air, wide receiver Garrett Cody finished with four receptions and two touchdowns on 123 yards. Fordham has the nations #1 ranked QB in passing Senior QB Tim DeMorat has Attempted 129 throws, completed 85 (66%) for 16 TD’s and 3 INT’s and a total of 1,302 passing yards while averaging 434 yard per game. In Rushing, Fordham’s RB Julius Loughridge ranks 50th in the nation with 277 yards and RB Trey Sneed ranks 91st with 235.
FORDHAM ON THE ROAD 2021 - PRESENT
OPPONENT RESULT FORDHAM OPPONENT TOTALS
@Colgate L 31 31 62
@Georgetown W 41 20 61
@Lafayette W 42 41 83
@Monmouth W 52 49 101
@Stony Brook W 31 14 45
@Wagner W 48 31 79
AVERAGES 40.8 31.0 71.8
FORDHAM AT HOME 2021 - PRESENT
OPPONENT RESULT FORDHAM OPPONENT TOTALS
Vs Albany W 48 45 93
Vs Bucknell W 66 21 87
Vs Holy Cross L 24 52 76
Vs Lehigh W 35 28 63
Vs Monmouth L 23 26 49
Vs Wagner W 56 7 63
AVERAGES 42 29.8 71.8
FORDHAM VS FBS 2021 - PRESENT
OPPONENT RESULT FORDHAM OPPONENT TOTALS
@Florida Atlantic L 14 45 59
@Nebraska L 7 52 59
Currently, the Ohio Bobcats are 1-2. They average 84.7 rushing yards and 239.33 passing yards per game. Ohio’s QB Kurtis Rourkeis ranked 104th in the nation in passing yards PPG. he is 61 of 97 (63%), 5 TD’s and 2 INT’s with 658 yards and Averaging 219 per game. What about defense? Ohio is ranked 239 out of 254 teams (FCS & FBS) and ranked 127 in FBS out of 131 Teams. Fordham is ranked 241 and 114 in FCS. Sounds like a high scoring game. No sign of rain on Saturday in Athens Ohio, in fact 70 degrees and partly cloudy, great for football!
FACT: Ohio at home against non Power-5 FBS teams and FCS teams is averaging 37 points allowing 28 and for totals of 65.5. However, against lower level FBS teams (ranked 160 and higher) and FCS teams, Ohio averages 38 points, allows 34 and has totals of 72.3. The 18.5 points will be more than enough for Fordham to cover. TAKE: 18.5+
(I would put a little on Fordham ML +670 to win)
OHIO at home
Date Road Score Home Score Result Pt Diff Totals
Sep 3, 2022 FAU 38 OHIO 41 W 3 79
Nov 16, 2021 TOL 35 OHIO 23 L -12 58
Nov 2, 2021 MIAMI OH 33 OHIO 35 W 2 68
Oct 23, 2021 KENT 34 OHIO 27 L -7 61
Oct 9, 2021 CMU 30 OHIO 27 L -3 57
Sep 11, 2021 DUQ 28 OHIO 26 L -2 54
Sep 4, 2021 SYRACUSE 29 OHIO 9 L -20 38
Nov 28, 2020 B GREEN 10 OHIO 52 W 42 62
Nov 10, 2020 AKRON 10 OHIO 24 W 14 34
Oct 19, 2019 KENT 38 OHIO 45 W 7 83
Oct 12, 2019 NIU 39 OHIO 36 L -3 75
Sep 21, 2019 UL.LAF 45 OHIO 25 L -20 70
Aug 31, 2019 RHODEI 20 OHIO 41 W 21 61
Nov 23, 2018 AKRON 28 OHIO 49 W 21 77
Nov 14, 2018 BUFF 17 OHIO 52 W 35 69
Oct 25, 2018 BALL ST 14 OHIO 52 W 38 66
Oct 20, 2018 B GREEN 14 OHIO 49 W 35 63
Sep 29, 2018 UMASS 42 OHIO 58 W 16 100
Sep 1, 2018 HOWARD 32 OHIO 38 W 6 70
AVERAGES 28.2 37.3 65.5
OHIO vs FCS and Lower Level FBS
Date Road Score Home Score Result Pt Diff Totals
Sep 3, 2022 FAU 38 OHIO 41 W 3 79
Sep 11, 2021 DUQ 28 OHIO 26 L -2 54
Nov 10, 2020 AKRON 10 OHIO 24 W 14 34
Sep 21, 2019 UL.LAF 45 OHIO 25 L -20 70
Aug 31, 2019 RHODE I 20 OHIO 41 W 21 61
Sep 29, 2018 UMASS 42 OHIO 58 W 16 100
Sep 1, 2018 HOWARD 32 OHIO 38 W 6 70
AVERAGES 30.7 36.1 66.9
South Alabama 38 vs Louisiana Tech 14
-13.5 / -590 / 59.5
Hello America, we are the Sun Belt Conference! South Alabama’s 38-24 victory at Central Michigan on Saturday, September 10, might have been the most dominant on the road performance in program history. Certainly, it was in the first half. The Jaguars scored on four straight possessions in the first and second quarters to build a 31-7 lead at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, Mich., setting a school record for points in a half in a road game. Yes, that was a dominant on the road performance UNTIL South Alabama led the ENTIRE game against UCLA only to lose in the last second on a UCLA field goal. But there is still one more story that prevented South Alabama from winning.On fourth-and-2 from the UCLA 20 and about only three minutes remaining, Jaguars coach Kane Wommack eschewed a 38-yard field goal attempt that could have put his team up 34-29. Instead, South Alabama shifted into an offensive formation, with backup holder Tanner McGee (also the Jaguars’ third-string quarterback) taking a shotgun snap. McGee could not find an open receiver and was dropped for an 11-yard loss by UCLA’s Carl Jones. After taking over at their own 31, the Bruins then drove for the game-winning field goal as time expired. In the CMU game QB Carter Bradley posted his second straight strong passing performance for the Jaguars, throwing for 354 yards and three touchdowns. In the UCLA game he went 26 of 36 for 237 yard and 1 TD, 1 INT. NOTE: QB Bradley played his first four college seasons at Toledo he is a transfer portal gain for South Bama. In the season opener, Bradley passed for 260 yards and three scores in a 48-7 victory over Nicholls. As of week 4, QB Bradley is ranked 38th in the nation and 24th ranked in FBS in passing. Louisiana Tech comes into this game ranked 218th (FCS & FBS) in the Nation on team defense allowing 461 yards per game. Since 2018, La Tech is 8-8 on the road against teams in their conference and similar teams (Non Power 5 teams). This season, Louisiana Tech’s offense is ranked 236th in YPG, Passing rank is 47th and Rushing is 202nd. However, this season seems to be very different and South Alabama is ranked in the top 100 (FCS & FBS 236 teams) in all categories.
Against Conference opponents and similar teams (NO FBS Power-5 teams) since 2018
TEAM Scores Allows Totals
LA TECH 26 24 50 as road team
SO BAMA 24 25 49 as home team
TEAM RANK Off YPG Pass YPG Rush YPG Defense Rank / YPG Allowed
LA TECH 236 47 202 218 461
SO BAMA 50 35 94 55 308
I see no reason as to why South Alabama doesn't score over 40-points. TAKE: -13.5
Pittsburgh 45 vs Rhode Island 24
Pitt -35.5 / NL / 57.5
The Pittsburgh Panthers avenged last season’s loss to Western Michigan in a 34-13 victory over the Broncos. The Panthers were without starting quarterback Kedon Slovis and backup Nick Patti due to injuries, and won with redshirt freshman Nate Yarnell. Yarnell played mistake-free football, going 9-for-12 for 179 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers did most of their work on the ground, out-gaining Western Michigan 238 to 50 in rushing yards. Pittsburgh controlled the ball for 38:21 compared to Western Michigan’s 21:24 Rhode Island is ranked 142nd in Defense, 86th in Offense YPG, 121st in passing yards and 108th in rushing yards Pittsburgh is ranked 79 in Defense, 231st in Offense YPG, 86th in passing yards and 133rd in rushing yards.
2021-to Present
OPPONENT Rhode Island Opponent Totals
Averages 26 25 52
Yes, Pittsburgh is 19-1 lifetime against FCS opponents. However, The Pitt Panthers have been battling injuries on both sides of the football since the start of the season. Pittsburgh beat Western Michigan on the road 34-13. Rhode Island lost its first game of the season to Delaware last week by a score of 42-21. The Panthers may be able to afford to rest some of those athletes who are recovering from injuries and not have them play against Rhode Island. They are currently down to their third-string quarterback Nate Yarnell. On the other side, Rhode Island QB Kasim Hill is ranked 79th in the country in passing yards and is a 3-year starter at Rhode Island. Can Rhode Island beat Pittsburgh, maybe one time out of 100, BUT can they cover 35.5 points - I believe this is the perfect time to do this. Lastly, neither team seems to go past the 57 points the line is set at often, so stay with the UNDER
Date Road Score Home Score Totals
Sep 25, 2021 NEW HAMP 7 PITT 77 84
Sep 4, 2021 UMASS 7 PITT 51 58
Sep 12, 2020 PEAY 0 PITT 55 55
Sep 28, 2019 DELAWARE 14 PITT 17 31
Sep 1, 2018 ALBANY 7 PITT 33 40
Averages 7.0 46.6 53.6
TAKE: +35.5 TAKE: UNDER 57.5
Penn State vs Western Michigan
Penn State - 28 / NL / 63.5
Penn State opened the season with a win as a road favorite at Purdue (35-31) The Nittany Lions blew out Auburn in a 41-12 win on the road last week, improving to 3-0. At Auburn Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford threw for 178 yards, while running back Nicholas Singleton rushed for 124 yards and two touchdowns on just 10 carries. They averaged 6.3 yards per carry against Auburn, and they should have just as much success against an undersized Central Michigan team. Penn State has won 14 of its last 20 games.Penn State opens with its first conference game against Northwestern next week.
CMU sophomore quarterback Daniel Richardson is one of the nation's leading passers throwing for 909 yards and seven touchdowns. He is ranked 19th in FBS and 29th overall (FCS & FBS) But defensively CMU is ranked 166th overall compared to Penn State which is ranked 128th overall in yards allowed. Again, compared to playing Auburn on the road or Bucknell (FCS) at home, the quality of the opponent shows in the numbers.
TAKE: UNDER 63.5
Penn state at home vs teams ranked 61 or higher competition 10-0
Date Road Score Home Score Result Pt Diff Totals
Sep 10, 2022 OHIO 10 PSU 46 W 36 56
Nov 20, 2021 RUTGERS 0 PSU 28 W 28 28
Oct 2, 2021 INDIANA 0 PSU 24 W 24 24
Sep 25, 2021 VILLAN 17 PSU 38 W 21 55
Sep 11, 2021 BALL S 13 PSU 44 W 31 57
Nov 30, 2019 RUTGERS 6 PSU 27 W 21 33
Sep 14, 2019 PITT 10 PSU 17 W 7 27
Sep 7, 2019 BUFF 13 PSU 45 W 32 58
Aug 31, 2019 IDAHO 7 PSU 79 W 72 86
Sep 15, 2018 KENT 10 PSU 63 W 53 73
AVERAGES 8.6 41.1 32.5 49.7
Penn state at home vs TOP 60 competition 6-6
Date Away Score Home Score Result Pt Diff Totals
Nov 13, 2021 MICH 21 PSU 17 L -4 38
Sep 18, 2021 AUB 20 PSU 28 W 8 48
Dec 12, 2020 MSU 24 PSU 39 W 15 63
Nov 21, 2020 IOWA 41 PSU 21 L -20 62
Nov 7, 2020 MARY 35 PSU 19 L -16 54
Oct 31, 2020 OSU 38 PSU 25 L -13 63
Oct 19, 2019 MICH 21 PSU 28 W 7 49
Oct 5, 2019 PURDUE 7 PSU 35 W 28 42
Nov 10, 2018 WISC 10 PSU 22 W 12 32
Oct 27, 2018 IOWA 24 PSU 30 W 6 54
Oct 13, 2018 MICH ST 21 PSU 17 L -4 38
Sep 29, 2018 OHIO ST 27 PSU 26 L -1 53
AVERAGES 24.1 25.6 12.7 49.7
CMU on the road against TOP 60 competition 0-6
Date Road Score Home Score Result Pt Diff Totals
Sep 1, 2022 CMU 44 OK ST 58 L 14 102
Sep 18, 2021 CMU 21 LSU 49 L 28 70
Sep 4, 2021 CMU 24 MIZZU 34 L 10 58
Sep 7, 2019 CMU 0 WISC 61 L 61 61
Sep 29, 2018 CMU 20 MI ST 31 L 11 51
Sep 1, 2018 CMU 20 KY 35 L 15 55
AVERAGES 21.5 44.7 -23.2 66.2