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Jimmy's Best NCAA Football Selections Saturday 10/8/22

All early games to get your day going!

Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan

Western Michigan -5 / -200 / 57.5

From 2010 - 2021 the Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan game’s (Home and Road) have averaged 58.5 points per game. Starting in 1998 WMU beat EMU at home three times in a row then lost the next year, then WMU beat EMU at home three times in a row then lost the next year, then WMU beat EMU at home three times in a row then lost the next year. Time to start the trend all over again since EMU beat WMU in 2020.

Date Away Score Home Score Result Totals

Dec 5, 2020 EMU 53 WMU 42 L 95

Oct 6, 2018 EMU 24 WMU 27 W 51

Oct 22, 2016 EMU 31 WMU 45 W 76

Nov 15, 2014 EMU 7 WMU 51 W 58

Nov 17, 2012 EMU 29 WMU 23 L 52

Nov 13, 2010 EMU 30 WMU 45 W 75

Nov 1, 2008 EMU 10 WMU 31 W 41

Oct 28, 2006 EMU 15 WMU 18 W 33

Oct 16, 2004 EMU 35 WMU 31 L 66

Nov 9, 2002 EMU 31 WMU 33 W 64

Nov 18, 2000 EMU 0 WMU 28 W 28

Oct 17, 1998 EMU 35 WMU 45 W 80

Since 2018 VS MAC West Score Allow Pt Diff Totals

EMU Road 31.3 30.1 0 61.5

WMU Home 30.2 30.4 0 60.7

NCAA Rankings Total Off Pass Rush Team Defense

EMU 133 153 46 174

WMU 215 201 245 129

TAKE: WMU -5 / TAKE: OVER 57.5

Wisconsin at Northwestern

Wisconsin -10 / -400 / 43.5

Wisconsin fired football coach Paul Chryst on Sunday after the team's 2-3 start. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard will serve as interim coach. Wisconsin has lost to Illinois and Washington State at home and Ohio State on the road and Wisconsin’s only two wins came against FCS Illinois State and New Mexico State. Since 2018 Wisconsin is 7-8 on the road against Big Ten Competition. From 2003 - 2020 Wisconsin is 1-7 at Northwestern with their only win coming in 2016 (21-7). Overall, since 2003 Wisconsin is 6-10 against lowly Northwestern.

Averages Score Allow Totals

Wisconsin vs Big 10 on the Road 26 23 50

Wisconsin vs Northwestern on the Road 20 25 45

Northwestern vs Big 10 at Home 20 23 43

Northwestern is not doing so well this year. Northwestern (NW) has lost 4-in-a-row and to some inferior teams at HOME! They lost to Miami (OH), prior to that they lost to FCS Southern Illinois and then Duke. Northwestern is currently 1-4 coming into this game and their only win came in the College Football Kickoff opener in week “0” (zero) in Ireland beating Nebraska 31-28. Technically, the Nebraska game in Ireland was a home game. Last week, NW went to Penn State and played their 2nd best game of the year but came up short 7-17 against a top 10 team. Since 2018 NW is 7-8 at home vs Big 10 teams.

Both teams stink! But for some unexplained reason (Only GOD knows) Wisconsin has only 1-win since 2000 at Northwestern.

NCAA Rankings Total Off Pass Rush Team Defense

WISC 119 145 248 53

NW 103 40 125 135

It is crazy to see Wisconsin favored by -10, who set this line. This is the steal of the week. Rarely does a team win after a coaches firing, not saying it can’t happen, Wisconsin wasn’t in total disarray, they had gone to bowls games in 25 straight years, an NCAA record.

TAKE: Northwestern +10 / TAKE: UNDER 45 / ML +295

Missouri at Florida

Florida -10.5 / -400 / 55.0

Since 2018, Florida is 12-5 at home against SEC Opponents. Gators average 32 points scoring, they allow 21 and have totals of 53. The Gators are coming off of a win in a Sunday rescheduled game against Eastern Washington. Remember last year...This is a revenge game, as Florida lost in Columbia, Missouri last season. The Gators open up as a 10.5-point favorite at home. At first glance, 10.5 seems like a lot of points for an SEC matchup. But if you look a little closer, it isn’t the strangest thing. Remember the Georgia team who struggled with Kent State weeks before, then Georgia played Missouri and the entire game felt like Georgia was going to rise up and just blow-out Missouri, but Mizzou gave the defending national champ a championship fight last week in a 26-22 loss. The Missouri offense hasn’t been anything special, but it didn’t turn it over against the Bulldogs. Missouri literally came within an inch from winning on the road at Auburn but RB Nathaniel Peat dropped the ball before crossing the goal line in the 17-14 loss Missouri hasn’t had much luck over the last few games and the Tigers are playing well. The Missouri defense has been terrific against the run, it has been great on third downs, and overall the team is able to control games by owning the clock. Mizzou leads the SEC and is fifth in the nation in time of possession. Bottom line, since 2012 the Gators are 3-2 against Missouri at home, yes the Gators can lose to Missouri, it is not a sure win for Florida. Since 2018, Missouri is 5-11 on the road against SEC Opponents. Missouri on the road against SEC Opponents averages 22 points scoring, allows 29 points and has totals of 51.

NCAA Rankings Total Off Pass Rush Team Defense

FLORIDA 35 86 51 193

MISSOURI 137 168 105 73

FLORIDA RANKED 63rd QB Anthony Richardson 223 YPG / Completion Pct 55 %

MISSOURI RANKED 78th QB Brady Cook 198 YPG / Completion Pct 63%

FLORIDA RANKED 174th RB Montrell Johnson Jr. 56 YPG

MISSOURI RANKED 204h RB Cody Schrader 52 YPG

MISSOURI RANKED 207th RB Nathaniel Peat 52 YPG

TAKE: Missouri +10.5 / TAKE UNDER 55

Michigan at Indiana

Michigan -21.5 / -1600 / 58.5

Michigan has been faulted for creating one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country, but it has worked out just fine for the Wolverines thus far. They blew out Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut to open their campaign, allowing a combined 17 points while scoring 166. Their schedule has been a little tougher since conference play began, as they beat Maryland by a touchdown before taking care of business in a 27-14 final at Iowa last week. They have a game against No. 10 Penn State coming up next week, so they will try to avoid getting caught looking ahead to that game. The Wolverines have been a balanced team this year, ranked inside the top 10 nationally in offense and defense. Their offense is powered by running back Blake Corum, who had 243 rushing yards against Maryland and 133 rushing yards against Iowa last week. Corum has 611 yards and 10 touchdowns overall this season, making him one of the top running backs in the country. Sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy has thrown for 848 yards and six touchdowns, avoiding any interceptions along the way. His top target has been senior wide receiver Ronnie Bell, who has 19 receptions for 269 yards and a score

Indiana started this season barely beating Illinois at home 23-20 in Week 1. The Hoosiers added home wins over Idaho 35-22 and squeaked by Western Kentucky in the final seconds 33-30, That could have been an indication of bad things to come, as they are now on a two-game losing skid following double-digit losses to Cincinnati on the road 45-24 and at Nebraska 35-21. The Hoosiers have lost 10 of their last 11 Big Ten games and their defense is terrible. Beyond that, Indiana managed just 267 yards against a Nebraska defense that was allowing more than 450. Nebraska had four sacks all season but notched three against Indiana and got a bunch of pressure. It also stoned the IU ground game and Nebraska has the worst run defense in the Big Ten. Connor Bazelak and the Hoosiers will have some success throwing the ball. But I don’t see the Hoosiers slowing down Blake Corum, J.J. McCarthy, or the Michigan offense.

Since 2018 Michigan is 12-5 on the road vs Big 10 Opponents

Since 2018 Indiana is 6-10 at home vs Big 10 Opponents

*Note Indiana did beat Michigan at home in 2020 38-21

Since 2018 vs Big 10 Opponents

Score Allow Pt Dif Totals

Michigan Road 33.2 25.3 7.9 + 58.6

Indiana Home 21.3 30.8 -9.5 52.5

TAKE: Indiana +21.5 TAKE: UNDER 58.5

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