JIMMY'S BEST NCAA FOOTBALL SELECTIONS SATURDAY 10/22
The horse I bet on was so slow, the jockey kept a diary of the trip.
Jimmy's Best
Iowa at Ohio State
Ohio State -29.5 / NL / 48.5
Ohio State has NEVER shut out a Big Ten opponent at home since 2018. In fact, the closest Ohio State came to a shutout was September 8, 2018 against Rutgers and Ohio State won 52-3. For over two decades, Kirk Ferentz has presided over the Iowa program and it seems like much of that offense playbook appears to not have been updated in a couple of decades, one could argue that the same is true of the Iowa defense. However, the two units have long had contrasting results, and the same is true this fall. Although the Iowa offense is literally the worst in the nation through the first half of 2022, the defense once again is ranked among the nation's elite. Looking just at scores you would see Iowa has a 7-3 record on the road vs Big Ten competition since 2020. In the last two years Iowa has never played Ohio State or Michigan on the road, in fact, the only top 40 teams Iowa has played on the road since 2019 have been Wisconsin and Penn State and Iowa was a LOSER to both.
Against BIG TEN Opponents (Since 2019)
Averages Score Allow Pt Dif Totals
Iowa Overall 25 18.2 6.8+ 43.2
Iowa Road 26.7 16.6 10.1+ 43.3
Iowa Home 23.5 19.0 4.5+ 42.6
The issue that will hurt Iowa the most is QB play, Iowa is lacking in that area.
Comp / Att Yards TD INT
Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud 173 / 247 1,737 24 / 3
Iowa QB Spencer Petras 87 / 161 939 2 / 3
Against BIG TEN Opponents (Since 2019)
Averages Score Allow Pt Dif Totals
Ohio State Home 46.5 18.5 28+ 65.0
FBS & FCS Combined
NCAA Rankings Total Off Pass Run Defense
Ohio State 4th 15th 15th 7th
Iowa 249th 120th 127th 10th
TAKE: OVER 48.5
Syracuse at Clemson
Clemson -13.5 / -530 / 52
Clemson has NEVER lost to Syracuse at home. Overall Clemson is 8-1 against Syaracuse since 2013, with Syracuse’s only win coming at home in 2017, 27-24. In that year Syracuse only won 4-games and Clemson was ranked 2nd in the nation. The closest Syracuse has come to beating Clemson on the road was a 23-27 loss in 2018. Lastly, since 2018 Clemson is 19-0 against ACC opponents at home.
Against ACC Opponents *since 2019, **since 2013
Averages Score Allow Pt Dif Totals
Syracuse Overall* 23.1 26.0 -2.9 49.1
Syracuse Road* 22.6 26.3 -3.7 49.0
Against ACC Opponents *since 2019, **since 2013
Averages Score Allow Pt Dif Totals
Clemson Overall* 34.2 17.7 16.5+ 51.9
Clemson Home* 42.2 16.8 25.4+ 58.9
Clemson vs Syracuse** 36.0 12.5 23.5+ 48.5
FBS & FCS Combined
NCAA Rankings Total Off Pass Run Defense
Clemson 91st 63rd 54th 60th
Syracuse 71st 65th 36th 13th
The NCAA Rankings are a bit misleading for Syracuse. Last week they played N.C. State without their starting QB,. Prior to that they Played Wagner at home ( Wagner is ranked 250th on defense and 253rd on offense). Syracuse also played UConn at home which at the time was ranked dead last in Offense and Defense in all of NCAA.. They have had some inflated games. Additionally, they played Purdue at home and won on two hail mary plays in the final minute. Bottom line, Syracuse has not put a complete quality game together the whole season against any quality opponent.
TAKE: -13.5 TAKE: OVER 52
Cincinnati at SMU
Cincinnati -3.5 / -155 / 61
Since 2020, SMU is 15-11 against FBS opponents (HM & RD) and SMU is 1-5 since 2013 against Cincinnati. SMU’s only win against Cincy came in 2017 on the road 31-28
Against FBS Opponents since 2020
Averages Score Allow Pt Dif Totals
SMU Overall 18-11 35.7 31.8 3.9+ 67.6
SMU Home 11-3 40.9 25.0 15.9+ 66.0
SMU vs UC Hm 0-3 12.0 36.3 -24.3 48.3
Against FBS Opponents since 2020 *since 2013
Averages Score Allow Pt Dif Totals
Cinci Overall 24-3 31.4 23.5 7.9+ 55.0
Cinci Road 11-2 32.2 22.1 10.1+ 54.3
Cinci VS SMU Overall* 5-1 35.5 17.6 17.9+ 53.1
Bottom line, Since 2021, UC is 24-3 overall during the regular season. They have a solid team and should win the conference if they beat UCF and Tulane. They have had a whole week off and are well rested.
FBS & FCS Combined
NCAA Rankings Total Off Pass Run Defense
UC 65th 34th 64th 40th
SMU 20th 4th 83rd 202nd
The data shows UC should win by 8-points if not more. Because SMU’s defense is so poor the possibility of hitting the over may be possible, however the majority of points would have to come from UC. It’s more likely to be under 61 points.
TAKE: UC -3.5
Kansas at Baylor
Baylor -9 / -550 / 62.5
The Jayhawks are on a 2-game losing streak after starting the season 5-0. Kansas lost to an unbeaten TCU in a dog fight on the road. Kansas also lost on the road to a desperate Oklahoma team that got the return of its starting quarterback. Kansas might be without QB Jalon Daniels for another week due to a shoulder injury, so it could be QB Jason Bean getting another start on Saturday. The Baylor Bears are also on a 2-game losing streak with losses to West Virginia and Oklahoma State. It remains to be seen if Baylor will have QB Blake Shapen available as he’s dealing with a head injury in last week's game, which could lead to QB Kyron Drones making the start. Baylor's inconsistent play the entire season showed up again last week in a 43-40 loss to West Virginia Thursday night in Morgantown. The Bears came into this season with higher expectations as the defending Big 12 champions but have had trouble living up to them.
Against “Like” competition (2022)
Date Team Score Team Score Result
Oct 13, 2022 WVU 43 BAY 40 L
Sep 10, 2022 WVU 42 KU 55 W
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Sep 24, 2022 IA ST 24 BAY 31 W
Oct 1, 2022 IA ST 11 KU 14 W
Last Six KU Games (FBS Only)
Date Team Score Team Score Result Totals
Oct 15, 2022 OU 52 KU 42 L 94
Oct 8, 2022 TCU 38 KU 31 L 69
Oct 1, 2022 IA ST 11 KU 14 W 25
Sep 24, 2022 DUKE 27 KU 35 W 62
Sep 17, 2022 HOU 30 KU 48 W 78
Sep 10, 2022 WVU 42 KU 55 W 97
Averages 33.3 37.5 70.8
Last Four BAY Games (FBS Only)
Date Team Score Team Score Result Totals
Oct 13, 2022 WVU 43 BAY 40 L 83
Oct 1, 2022 OK ST 36 BAY 25 L 61
Sep 24, 2022 IA ST 24 BAY 31 W 55
Sep 10, 2022 BYU 26 BAY 20 L 46
Averages 32.2 29 61.2
FBS & FCS Combined
NCAA Rankings Total Off Pass Run Defense
Kansas 56th 76th 22nd 210th
Baylor 40th 36th 39th 79th
TAKE: OVER 61
Indiana at Rutgers
Rutgers 3+ / 125+ / 45
The Scarlet Knights enter Saturday’s game against Indiana riding a three-game losing streak, which has added to its 20-game home Big Ten conference losing streak that has spanned five seasons and nearly 1,800 day Last week Rutgers coach Greg Schiano fired offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson during the bye week. With an extra week to prepare, can the Scarlet Knights lean on their interim coordinator Nunzio Campanile to jump-start the team’s struggling offense? As I recall, didn’t Scott Frost fire the Nebraska offensive coordinator, then Frost was fired and the ‘O coordinator took over the head coaching job for Nebraska? It sounds familiar.
Rutgers is 0-20 at home vs Big Ten Teams. Indiana is not much better than Rutgers they are 6-9 on the road vs Big Ten Competition. But how can you put Rutgers as the favorite? You’re saying 0-20 Rutgers will win a Big Ten home game..I’m betting they won’t!
Since 2019 score allow Pt Diff totals
Rutgers Home vs Big Ten 14 36 -22 51
Indiana Road vs Big Ten 24 30 -6 53
Date AWAY Score Home Score Result Totals
Nov 13, 2021 RUTGERS 38 INDIANA 3 W 41
Oct 12, 2019 RUTGERS 0 INDIANA 35 L 35
Nov 18, 2017 RUTGERS 0 INDIANA 41 L 41
Oct 17, 2015 RUTGERS 55 INDIANA 52 W 107
Averages 23.2 32.7 56
Date Away Score HOME Score Result Totals
Oct 31, 2020 INDIANA 37 RUTGERS 21 L 58
Sep 29, 2018 INDIANA 24 RUTGERS 17 L 41
Nov 5, 2016 INDIANA 33 RUTGERS 27 L 60
Nov 15, 2014 INDIANA 23 RUTGERS 45 W 68 **
Averages 29.2 27.5 56.7
**Not in Big
NCAA Rankings Total Off Pass Rush Team Defense
INDIANA 159th 39th 126th 200th
RUTGERS 190th 115th 61st 19th
TAKE: OVER 45 TAKE: INDIANA +3