DAY 37 NCAA Basketball Tuesday (12/13)
Good win Monday, let's keep it rolling with another 2-4-Tuesday!
64 Princeton at 70 Iona
FG% 3PT% FT%
Iona 47.5 36.5 75.0
Princeton 48.0 34.9 71.4
These are two very good defensive teams, Iona ranked 54th in points allowed and Princeton 52nd, but that’s where it ends. When you look at the opponents each team has played you find Iona is more impressive. Iona is 6-2, and has won 4-in-a-row. Ioana is 19-1 at home in the last 20-games and has won 19-in-row on the home court. In those 19 home wins Iona scored 80, allowed 64 with totals of 144 and an average margin of victory of 15 points.
Princeton is on an impressive win streak winning 8-in-a-row and 3-1 on the road this season. The wins on the road came against Navy, UMBC and Marist. However, statistically Navy and UMBC are ranked 254th and 299th out of 354 teams respectively in points allowed. Marist is ranked 343rd in points scored, the bottom 5% of teams. I think Princeton has benefited from a weak schedule and conference and its stats are not comparable in this game. The numbers, Princeton scores 75, allows 63 with totals of 138
TAKE: IONA -7 L
TAKE: OVER 143 (134) L
57 North Carolina Central at 67 LSU
FG% 3PT% FT%
NCC 49.4 42.5 72.5
LSU 45.7 38.6 70.2
Overall, LSU is 8-1, won 5 in-a-row and is 5-0 at home. LSU scores on average 72, allowing 62 with totals of 134. LSU has not blown-out any team ranked 250 or lower by more than 4 points at home. LSU is suspect.
First the bad news, North Carolina Central has lost 7-in-a-row on the road. Most notably, they lost to Marquet 77-90 and Virginia 61-73. Good news they are ranked 35th in the nation in points scored averaging 81 points per game. LSU closely resembles Virgina, Offensively they rank 192 / 193 and defensively they rank 43 / 13. Both LSU and Virginia score 72 points per game and they differ in points allowed with 62/58 respectively. The reason I mention this is coming into the game, both teams scored on average 82 and both allowed 68. In the first half of that game, it was about NCC turnovers and at half the score was 29-52. In the 2nd half NCC pulled it together and won the second half 49-38. The NCC game vs Virginia was the opening game of the season and NCC has improved. NCC scores on average 82, allowing 62 with totals of 149.
TAKE: NCC MONEY LINE +750 L
TAKE: NCC +14 W
TAKE: OVER 140 (124) L
48 Mississippi Valley State at 71 Wichita State
FG% 3PT% FT%
WS 43.8 30.0 69.2
MVST 36.4 36.3 66.1
MVST is the absolute worst team in the NCAAB. They are 1-9, lost 5-in-a-row and 0-7 on the road. MVST is ranked 362nd out of 362 (THE ABSOLUTE BOTTOM) in scoring and 338th in points allowed (they are not last). MVST scores 53.5, allows 77 with totals of 130.5. Teams on average score 24 more points than MVST. GOOD NEWS, they won one game!
Wichita State is statistically good on defense they are ranked 43rd in the nation in points allowed (62). However, in scoring they are right there with MVST ranked 289th. Wichita State scores 67.5, allows 62.5 with totals of 130.
TAKE: OVER 127 (119) L
TAKE: MVST +28 W
65 Chicago State at 66 Murray State
FG% 3PT% FT%
Murray 44.5 31.1 71.1
Chicago 42.6 32.7 76.1
Murray State isn’t the same as Murray State last season, this year they are ranked 160th in points scored and 212th in points allowed. Overall, Murray scores 74, allows 70 for totals of 144. Good news is Murray is 19-1 in their last 20-games at home, with the loss coming back on Feb 18, 2022 from Eastern Illinois. An interesting comparison is that both teams played Valpo at home. Chicago won 87-74, and Murray won 77-70
Chicago State is statistically in the bottom 5% for points allowed per game, they rank 342 out of 364 giving up 77-points per game. Chicago’s averages are, score 68.5, allow 77.5, with totals of 146. Chicago is 3-8 and all 3-wins came at home to teams and two wins came from teams statistically worse than they are! (IUPUI & Valpo) they had an upset win over Southern Indiana.
On the road Chicago state is 0-8, Ugly. In those games they scored 65, allowed 82 with totals of 147 and NONE of the totals went below 140! Also in those games the average margin for defeat is 19-points.
TAKE: OVER 143 (131) L
61 Green Bay at 82 St. Thomas
FG% 3PT% FT%
St. Thomas 48.1 39.5 77.4
Green Bay 40.1 25.4 70.4
There is no good news for Green Bay, they rank 356 in scoring and 304th in points allowed. They score on average 59, allowing 74 for totals of 133. Green Bay is 2-8 on the season and 0-4 on the road and 2-18 in the last 20 road games. I guess the good news is they have never played St. Thomas
St. Thomas is having a decent season, they are 8-4 (But many of those wins against D2 NAIA) and 3-0 at home against D1 teams. They score on average 77 allowed 69 with totals of 146. The three home wins came against St. Francis (NY), Chicago State and Omaha winning by 36, 22 and 21 points respectively.
TAKE: ST THOMAS -12 W
TAKE: OVER 137 (143) W
50 New Orleans at 91 Boise State
FG% 3PT% FT%
Boise 43.5 34.1 71.0
N Orleans 43.3 35.6 67.1
Boise is ranked 12th in the nation in points allowed per game. They score 69, allow 58, with totals of 127. Boise has won 7 in a row, 8-2 overall and 3-1 at home with the loss coming from Last year's conference champ and NCAA tournament team South Dakota State 66-68. Playing at home the average win is by 11.5 points.
New Orleans is 2-6 and 0-3 on the road and have lost 3 games in a row on the road. New Orleans is statistically bad (REALLY BAD) in points allowed and ranked 358 out of 362 teams. New Orleans scores 68, allows 82, with totals 150.
TAKE: UNDER 142 (141) W
TAKE: NEW ORLEANS +24 L
68 Cal Poly at 74 Washington
FG% 3PT% FT%
Cal-Poly 44.3 32.9 74.2
Washington 44.0 31.9 75.3
This looks like a close game on paper. Statistically, Washington ranks 256th and Cal-Poly is 304th. On the defensive side Washington is ranked 96th and Cal Poly is 51st.
Cal-Poly scores 65, allows 63, with totals of 128. CP is 5-3 for the season and has won 4-in-a-row but are 1-2 on the road. The two losses on the road came from Stanford 43-80 and San Francisco 48-60 and both those teams scored on average 66 and 75 points per game. Interestingly, Stanford is ranked 310th for scoring and 106th in Defense.
Washington is 7-3 this season and 5-1 at home. Overall, Washington scores 69, allows 65, with totals of 134. There is a bump up in points for Washington while playing at home Score 72.5, allow 64.5 with totals of 137.
TAKE: OVER 127 (142) W
TAKE: CAL-POLY +14 W