DAY 26 NCAA Basketball Friday (12/2)
Wow, we have a streak going, Who likes winning? This could be a RARE Double bet night where we take both teams...I have heard of UFO's and I want to believe and tonight we get to see if it is real!
7:00 pm Friday December 2
Iona -13.5 vs Niagara - O/U 129
** PS line has been moving down
Field Goal % 44.8 46.2
Three Point % 36.6 34.1
Free Throw % 71.7 73.1
Total Rebounds % 35.1 33.5
On paper this game looks close…But not so fast!
This is a classic Home and Away Series. Last season Iona beat Niagara at home 78-55, then on the road Niagara beats Iona 80-71. Niagara started the year on the road getting trounce by Big 10 Maryland 71-49 and then losing a game to a dam good Bucknell team 50-68. Niagara then went to Ireland, playing in the 2022 Dublin Basketball Challenge getting two wins against very inferior teams, Central Arkansas 73-64, and Stetson 66-62. In the last 12 road games Niagara has failed to score above 70 points except for beating Cent Ark in Ireland (73-points). More importantly, in the last 20-games anywhere (adjusted for outliers) the averages are scoring 64, allows 66 with total of 133 and the average margin of victory is 6.6 pts
Iona, in the last 20-games anywhere (adjusted for outliers) the averages are, scoring 74, allows 66 with totals of 140 and the average margin of victory is 13.75. Interestingly, in the last ten home games it’s about the same, they score 75, allow 62 with totals of 137 and the average margin of victory is 17 points.
Looks like the point spread for this game is set correctly. I see a chance to three bet this game! I would take Iona and buy down to -11 and I would take Niagara +14.5. Statistically, it should be a 13-to-14-point difference for this game AND the totals are set at 129 which is statistically too low! Playing safe the best bet is;
Take OVER 129!
FINAL: IONA 78 NIAGARA 56 (134 PTS)