She back from vacation and ready to hit Saratoga hard like a sunburn..ooooowieeee
TheTop Three (3) selections are my plays, you can add the other horse selections if you would like
Race 1 $75,000 Jonathan Kiser Stakes 2 1/16Miles Hurdle Race 1:05 PM ET
Best Guess: 1 Perfect Tapatino, 7 Burn The Evidence (GB), 5 Howyabud (IRE)
Race 2 $50,000 Maiden Claiming 6F Dirt 1:39 PM ET
At 6F Dirt Maiden a few things stand out. The #2 Laughter just had a bullet work out and hit 47 at 4F and the #3 Yogi has been doing 5F work outs, no other horses do that. #2 Laughter has the highest Beyer rating of 88 of the group and hits 109 on turf…Yes, I know Turf, but again, look at the dirt workouts! The next the fastest horse at 6F dirt is the 1A Glittering with a 112.5 Lastly the #7 Darn That Song and #5 Mike's Little Diva both drop-in class from $70K to $40K. The 5 and 7 are both closers.
Race 3 $60,000 Claiming 6F Dirt 2:13 PM ET
What’s interesting about this race (6F Claiming on Dirt) is that 9 0f the 28 winners at 6F on dirt, were ML 5-2 or lower that’s 33% …and 66% of the winners came from 7-2 or higher. Also, the two leading Jockeys at 6F dirt are Manny Franco (with 5-wins) on the #4 Not Yet Charlie. Luis Saez with 5-wins BUT Saez is not racing here and that leaves Irad Ortiz and Prat with 3-wins each as next in line. Irad is on the fastest horse the # 2 Printrack 2-1. Now, the #2, 3, 4 and 6 all have trainers and jockeys that have won at 6F Dirt. The #2 Printrack won a 6F at Finger Lakes (June 22) with Gomez on the mount and won by 9 ½ lengths in 1:11. The #2 drops from allowance to claiming but for the same price of $25K, HOWEVER horse gets an upgraded to Jockey Irad Ortiz. The #4 Not Yet Charlie 8-1 is trained by Rudy Rodriguez and Manny has raced this horse before AND FOR A WIN at 7F. Lastly, you have the #6 Leddy, (owned by Spendthrift Farm LLC) trained by Steve Asmussen (who only wins on DIRT) One of the country’s top trainers, Asmussen is hot-and-cold at The Spa. The time you want to play Asmussen is in dirt sprints, especially when he sends out his expensive juveniles in either their first or second starts. Steve has his old Jockey, Santana on the mount today. This race is a 25K claimer, not sure why the horse is in this race, he was racing in $72K Allowance and opened with a $120K Maiden and In November of 2021 which he won at 6F by 7 ½ lengths with a 1:10. If Beyer speeds are your thing than it’s the #2 Printrack with 102 and the #5 Never Early with 101, the next closest horse is #6 Leddy with a 92. TAKE: 2-4-6-5
Race 4 $60,000 Claiming 8F Turf 2:49 PM ET
Are you ready for the KING? The King on Turf at this Saratoga meet is Michael Maker 6-wins at 8.5F and one win at 5.5. The #5 Golden Voice is 9-5 because of Maker! The horse is dropping down from 55K to 25K but is not the fastest horse in the race. The #3 War Canoe prefers racing the 9F turf but has great 7F and 8F 1:24 and 1:35 finish times, HOWEVER they were at 52K and 40K Allowance races. The #6 Charge Account and #4 Adelaide Miss are also 1:34 mile racers AND the #4 has Saez as a Jockey and Louie is having a good meet on turf.
Race 5 $105,000 Maiden Special Weight 5.5F Turf 3:21 PM ET
#1 Java Buzz Has recent workouts at 5F on dirt and Java is only horse in this race to run a 5.5F on turf. Here’s the good news, Java gets Prat as the Jockey and Linda Rice Trainer. The #2 Upper Level has Blazing fast work outs on Dirt and raced a 5F on turf in 1:03 The horse is trained by Jimmy Jerkens. Jerkens is usually not a high-percentage trainer at Saratoga. He doesn’t win much on grass OR with distance horses on dirt. He is dangerous in stakes AND in dirt sprints, particularly if it’s with a maiden second-time starter. Best Bet with him is Second-time starters in dirt sprints, 2yos and maidens (not first-starters) Gomez is on Java! I know this is Turf not Dirt, but the horses is a leader and likes to get out front. #3 Rocket's Red Glare is a 1st time starter (from Linda Rice) with average work outs. But if you want to score big! You do it with Irad. These are the races He wins, well off the Morning Line at 4-1 to 8-1 AND on TURF! #4 Triumphant Road is an expensive horse, bought for $425K raced 1-time in 2021 at Saratoga THAT’S IT! This horse is owned by Prince Sultan Bin Mishal Al Saud of Saudi Arabia and. A big plus today for the #4 is the leading Jockeys at 5.5F on turf are Castellano and Rosario each with 5-wins at 5.5F turf…And Castellano is on this #4-horse. #5 Sosua Summer is well Traveled and Raced with the 2nd fastest 6F time and a 103 Beyer! The 5.5F Turf Races always bring in unexpected results, I personally would “ALL” this race in any Pick4 or 5. If ya must narrow it down, Take my top 5 selections
Race 6 $88,000 Maiden Special Weight 8.5F Turf 3:55 PM ET
This is a Maiden Race, 8.5F Turf for $88K. The ML FAV or the next FAV is NOT going to win this race! GO DEEP! Jose Ortiz has the most wins at this category with THREE and he is not riding today! I’m not taking the #7 Smokie Eyes or the #3 Collaboration. I always get stuck this race and 7 out of 9 times it’s big odds that I did not pick, and they win. Saez is outstanding on Turf and he’s on the #2 Bernt Again. The horse has been at Saratoga since June 8 and has Turf Training. Castellano has 5-wins at 5.5 on Turf and he’s on #4 Dream On Cara. Trainer David Donk has #5 Lady Jasmine and Johnny V, they have TWO wins on turf at 8.5F this is a good team. TAKE: 5-2-4
Race 7 $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming 8FBDirt 4:29 PM ET
Horrible race! 6-horses racing for $100K and the best we have are two horse that have won 85K Allowance races. TAKE: 4-3-2: #4 Troubleshooter, #3 Tiergan and #2 Daddy Knows.
Race 8 $80,000 Claiming 7F Dirt 5:05 PM ET
Hey, it’s a rematch between Marvelous Marvin Hagler and Sugar Ray Leonard – was that the greatest fight ever? Someone needs to thank the track scheduler for putting this FIGHT…sorry, race together. In this race #8 Hagler and #6 Sugar Gray Leonard have won 7F at $50K Allowance or higher AND this is a claiming race, they should be FIGHTING it out for the finish line...LOL. The #8 Hagler has Irad on the mount and his ML is 6-1 and those odds are the races he wins. #3 Buckingham Prince is the fastest at 7F in this race with a 1:22. The #5 Dot's Dollar “which is the FAV at 7-2” has NOT raced a 7F but has a Fast 6.5F at 1:17 on dirt which is faster than the #3’s Buckingham Prince at 6.5F. TAKE 3-8-6-5
Race 9 $120,000 Allowance Optional Claiming 8.5F Turf 5:39 PM ET
Welcome to the Chad Brown Allowance Race! The 1 and 1A are Chad Brown trained Horses, AND #1 Rocky Sky (IRE) has Prat AND 1A American Bridge (GB) has Irad Ortiz. The leading Jockeys on Turf are Irad with 11-wins followed by Rosario with 9-wins and Castellano with 8-wins. Castellano is not in the race and Rosario is on the #4 Poca Mucha which is trained by Bill Mott. Bill Mott will annually be one of the top turf trainers, and he can still win allowances on the dirt as well, primarily in routes. Mott is not effective with turf sprint winners at Saratoga, however, once they stretch out on the turf, betting Mott’s horses is a no-brainer. Jose Ortiz is the leading Jockey at 8.5F on Turf with 4-wins and he is on the #5 Movie Moxy, I would put him in contention because this horse has raced dirt and has solid times that will decrease going to turf to maybe 1:40
Race 10 $35,000 Claiming 7F Dirt 6:13 PM ET
The horses carrying the lightest load (118 lbs or lower) are; #4 Ginnsu Warrior (a re-entry), #6 Regality and #5 Yono. The top winning Jocks on Dirt are Irad Ortiz (11), Saez (9), Rosario (8), Prat (8) AND they are NOT in this race! That leaves Manny Franco (7) Johnny V (6) and Dylan Davis with (5) and since Johnny V is NOT in this race, so we are down to Just #11 Cathedral Beach with Manny Franco and #4 Ginnsu Warrior with Dylan Davis. The fastest 2 horses are #3 Bezos – Gaffalione with a 1:23 AND a Beyer of 105 (the highest in the race) BUT THE #3 IS SCRATCHED! and #11 Cathedral Beach with a 1:24. If you like a big drop-in class #7 Yono with Santana goes from winning a $150K and allowance down to this 16K Claiming race. TAKE: 11-7-4-6